Bruce Almighty @ Intertops

[Oren1]

They've raised the maximum bet on this one to $275, and that makes it a lot easier to make some $$$. This is like taking candy from a baby:

"1 unit" on 45 to 54.9 2.6 odds
"1 unit" on 55 to 64.9 3.4 odds
plus some change on 65 or more 10.5 odds as a bit of a safety net.

I guess it could go under 45 but I'm seeing ads for this one all over the place and I think the hype alone turns this one into a big hit.

 

[guildda]

My max was unfortunately still 55, but I too hit the 45-54.9M

 

[SoundofSilence]

Liar, Liar had a $31.4 million opening weekend. Bruce Almighty is essentially the same movie (or a sequel if you will)... Same main actor, same director, same basic concept of "what if this happened to a guy" comedy. In addition to that, its got these things going against it:

Jim Carrey's stock has been nosediving for years now... When was the last *great* comedy you saw him in?

Liar, Liar got bad reviews in the box office -- so what amounts to basically a sequel isn't going to do a whole lot better, if it at all.

It is also coming out the week after the biggest movie of the summer (which there will surely be some leftover buzz -- I still haven't seen Matrix 2 yet, but I plan on it this weekend), and coming out the same weekend as another comedy (The In-Laws).

Can't necessarily pin a # on it, but there a whole slew of factors that say this movie isn't going to make $15 million more than one just like it.

I don't know if I ever posted it, because I was holding off on making the bet and waiting for the "male gamblers" to jump all over Bruce Almighty, but I think Charlie's Angels 2 -$2 million vs Bruce Almighty at Olympic is the best bet on/against this movie.

Charlie's Angels 1 had good-great reviews, and its coming out on a weekend where it has no direct competition. I grabbed it at -$2 mill +100.

 

[Oren1]

yeah but movie ticket prices have risen astronomically since Liar Liar came out, especially matinee prices. I think it's going to do between 45-55 million. His stock has fallen a lot, but there's always the chance for a comeback. Audience reaction to the trailer has been very positive.

 

[Royler]

I'm amazed at the public perception of Carrey. His stock has fallen? The man has had exactly two duds in the past ten years: The Majestic, which was a dopey failure at recapturing a Capra-esque fantasy; and Man on the Moon, which was a redundant piece of work. (Why watch Carrey doing Andy Kaufman doing Elvis when Comedy Central broadcasts the real thing every two weeks?)

Jim being Jim is as close a thing to printing money as you can get. I'm tempted by the +2 line over Charlie's Angels (possibly the biggest piece of junk this summer). It shouldn't even be close.

 

[Oren1]

There was also Me Myself and Irene, which only did 24 million it's opening weekend June of 2000.

 

[SoundofSilence]

Royler:

Me, Myself, and Irene was a dud... As was Liar, Liar if you ask most people -- certainly not a box office smash... If you ask most people what Carrey's last *great* movie was, it was Dumb and Dumber, way back in '94.

Since Ace Ventura and Dumb and Dumber, his "slapstick comedies" have been Ace Ventura 2 (bomb), Liar Liar (mediocre), and Me Myself and Irene (bomb).

I think your severly overestimating Carrey's draw for what amounts to another carbon copy "What if this wild thing happened to a guy!?" comedy, and severly underestimating Charlie's Angels draw.

Charlie's Angels pulled in $15 million more than Liar Liar did, plus it got good/great reviews.

 

[Royler]

Duds? Wow, I couldn't disagree with you more.

MM, & I pulled in $90 million, a MORE than acceptable amount of money. It wasn't a mega-smash, but those expectations are created by the media, not by Carrey.

Ace 2 a bomb? Are you nuts? A $37 million opening weekend in 1995 is gangbusters. At the time, that may have been the record for a comedy.

Liar, Liar medicore? $181 million gross is "medicore"?

I maintain that "Bruce" will open very well...may fizzle out, but I don't see any way in which Charlie's Angels does anywhere near the business.

 

[Oren1]

Bruce is the early favorite to win that matchup, but I'm starting to see a lot of advertisements for Charlie's Angels 2. While I'm not seeing anything special in these previews, it could do surprisingly well. Personally, I'm not betting on that one. If I had to I might actually take a chance with Charlies Angels, as summer action flicks usually make more money than the comedies.

 

[SoundofSilence]

Actually, judging by Olympic's lines, Charlie's Angels 2 is the early favorite to gross more opening weekend. It's still at -$2 million, and the line has gone from -115 to +100, back to -115, and is now -125... So it looks like people are putting money down on Charlie's Angels 2.

 

[Oren1]

Origionally the lines were swaying towards Bruce.

 

[Gillian]

I layed $10 on 65 OR MORE... it's worth it for the $95 pay back. 55 to 64 also looks good to me too.

Reviews for this movie are FANTASTIC!

Gil.

 

[SonofaGun]

honestly, who the fukk wants to see Charlies Angels 2? Do you guys know one MALE (that's not gay) that wants to see this garbage? Everytime I see a trailer of it, it makes me wanna vomit.

 

[SoundofSilence]

I didn't know any males, even the ones that are gay, that wanted to see Charlie's Angels 1... Yet it still did quite well its opening weekend, and got good reviews to boot.

 

[Gillian]

ARE YOU GUYS BOTH GAY? Cause I know a shit load of guys who went and saw that movie just to check out the puta. (pussy).

Cameron Dias dancing in her undearwear made at least 10 million for them... I don't like her or the rest of them for that matter, but I'm sure young boys do.

gil

 

[Oren1]

I'm with you on this one, Gil

Don't think BA is going to go over 65, though, like I already said, but I guess there's a chance.

 

[Gillian]

you're probably right. 95% for sure. But I lost out on Down With Love's crappy box office debut. So I'm not taking any chances with this one. It's only $10.

We're gamblers, we're rich.

Gil

 

[Oren1]

yeah, **** I should have just taken the under on Down With Love, instead of gambling on the Matrix. I saw some people saying it would have a bad start. Maybe it was the competition.

 

[Gillian]

INTERTOPS had it at +600. I would have made $300 off $50. See, no matter how sharp you think you are -- you can be a GinSu knife, some days you ain't cutting through the box office. You know what I mean? It kicks you in the ass sometimes, and says: " hey, remember me, I'm still unpredictable." (I think I've had too many beers) lol. Anyway, to be honest... I wouldn't have gone seen Down With Love if my granny, on her death bed, last wishes was to watch it with me. lol.

Later.

Gil.

 

[Oren1]

lol.

Damn, with all the hype around the Matrix we missed the easy winner this weekend!